transatlanticvoice

When Greek Prime Minister Adonis Samaras paid a visit to German Chancellor Merkel in Berlin yesterday, he set foot in a city where mere 20 % of its inhabitants own the place they live in, half the percentage of the German average of 40 % home owners. Germany is considered the economic engine of Europe, so general assumption is that its people must be rich as well. Not when it comes to home ownership: Germans are by far eclipsed by …. Greeks: 80,1 % of all Greeks are home owners, topping the European average of 70 %. And this talks only about their first home. Having lived in Greece myself for three years and still being in close contact with my friends there, I literally don’t know one single person doesn’t own a summer retreat. It might range from  a mansion to a cottage in a remote area. But EVERYONE I met (and I met plenty of people from all walks of life) does own a second … or third … home. Don’t tell this the average Berliner, who crowds on an articifial “sand beach” on one of the city’s canals or owns a hut in a notorious “Schrebergarten”, normally a green patch near a highway or a railroad…

Geopolitical analyst Robert D. Kaplan’s book “The Revenge of Geography” has been announced by Stratfor, the global intelligence company, with much fanfare for weeks. Kaplan’s explanation of the world, in particular his perspective of the current economic crisis in Europe is surprisingly simple: Germany’s trade surplus and Greece’ collapse – it has nothing to do with good or bad governance, fiscal discipline, innovative thrive, a transparent tax system etc. , no it’s all geography’s blessing or curse. To oversimplify his thesis: Northwestern Europe is blessed with a dense river network which lowers transportation costs, thus exports are facilitated and therefore these nations are prosperous. Southern Europe in contrast lacks this network, and since their competitive advantage – to offer the products at a cheaper price – became obsolete the moment they joined the Euro they are condemned to be poor.

Nice side effect: Since geography can’t be changed and the economic misery is therefore not their fault – isn’t the North morally obligated to support the disadvantaged brothers and sisters – at any cost?

Isn’t this striking? Well the problem is that Kaplan’s thesis won’t stand the test.

The cheapest “natural” transport infrastructure is not the river network, but the sea. How long are the coast lines of Italy, Greece, Spain compared to Germany’s, Austria’s or Switzerland’s? And wasn’t there a time, the mentioned Southern European countries took great advantage of their sea, when they were the quintessential trading nations of ancient and medieval times? The Greeks, the Venetians, the Spaniards – they used to be the merchants of the world. Way back geography didn’t seem to be in their way.

And where does Kaplan find his “dense river network” in the economically booming Scandinavia – or in Switzerland? If one country can prove his thesis wrong then this tiny place – landlocked, isolated by huge mountains – and with rivers which defy any “taming” to make them navigable.

I am afraid there must be other than geographical reasons why the gap opened in Europe’s economies.  The “poor South” (which in itself is very inhomogeneous, don’t dare to compare Italy’s and Greece’ production) is still encumbered by the legacy of its past: feudalism, “clientelismo”, the impediments   of Catholicism and Orthodoxy. Both religions fought against modernism.  Don’t forget that the Pope condemned railroads as “satanic”. And Greece’ higher clergy opposed the country’s joining the EC.

In other words, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy’s Mezzogiorno are still hostages of the past. They missed the chance to modernize society, economic and governmental structures.

Yes, there are determinants which explain why Europe is economically divided – but it’s less geography than history and religion. As a historian may I suggest a book with the title “The revenge of History”.